Starters Failing Miserably – - Should Red Sox Nation Be Worried?
Should Red Sox Nation be worried? Coming out of the gates in the 2009 2nd half, the Red Sox have lost 3 of 4 games on the road. The Yankees have won all 4 of their games to move into a tie with the Red Sox atop the AL East with a record of 55-37. While playing great at home at Fenway Park this year (31-14), the Red Sox have struggled at home, playing just over .500 ball at 24-23. The Red Sox also have to deal with the defending AL Champs, the Tampa Bay Rays, who have won 7 of their last 10 games and are just 4.5 games behind the Yankees and Red Sox. The Rays went just 9-14 during the month of April, but have rallied with a 42-28 record since (a .600 clip) to put them right back in the thick of things in the AL East.
The real cause for concern is the lack of effective starting pitching that the Red Sox have seen of late.
John Smoltz has not lived up to the hype in his 5 2009 starts. Smoltz has lasted 6 innings in only 1 start and he has a 6.31 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. In Monday night’s loss at Texas, Smoltz served up 3 home runs, all in a 5-run 6th inning that saw the Rangers pull away for good by taking a 6-2 lead. His strikeout to walk ratio has been good (22K’s to just 4 walks), but he will need to avoid the big inning if he expects to be a solid contributor for the rest of the season.
Brad Penny has given the Red Sox starts and innings in 2009, but that’s about it. Penny has won only 6 games for the Red Sox and he now has a bloated ERA (5.02) and WHIP (1.50). His 2-1 strikeout to walk ratio is unacceptable (65 K’s against 30 walks in 98 2/3 innings). The Red Sox have lost each of his last 4 starts, scoring just 11 runs total in the 4 losses. In Penny’s earlier starts, the Red Sox gave Penny ample run support, but with the Red Sox bats cooling off during Penny’s recent starts, his inconsistency is getting exposed.
Tim Wakefield has been one of the Red Sox most reliable pitchers, but a strained lower back is forcing him to the 15-day disabled list. Wakefield hurt the back during a side session this past Saturday in Toronto, and at the ripe old age of 43, it is unclear when Wakefield will be back. Wakefield is 10-2 this season with a very respectable 4.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His strikeout to walk ratio isn’t great (61 K’s with 37 walks), but he has made 15 starts and pitched 108 2/3 innings to help give the great Red Sox bullpen a rest.
Clay Buchholz started the Red Sox 1st game back after the All-Star Break and threw 5+ effective innings in picking up the win. The Red Sox will turn to Buccholz to take Wakefield’s spot in the rotation for the foreseeable future.
Josh Beckett has been the Red Sox best pitcher all season long – 11-3; 3.35 ERA; 1.15 WHIP; 110 K’s; 35 walks.
Jon Lester has come on as of late – 8-7; 3.87 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; 137 K’s; 39 walks. The Red Sox have won 7 of his last 9 starts with Lester tallying a 5-2 record during that span.
The Red Sox will need Beckett and Lester to shoulder the load and hope that Buccholz can provide consistent innings until Wakefield returns. During that time, we will need Smoltz and Penny to pitch more consistently and avoid the big innings that have cost them recently. If Daisuke Matsuzaka can make an effective return at some point during the season (he has been a complete bomb in 2009 with a 1-5 record; 8.23 ERA & 2.20), that could be the missing piece that the Red Sox will need to make it back to post-season play in 2009. If not, Manager Terry Francona and GM Theo Epstein will have a tough decision to make if Smoltz and Penny continue to struggle. You could see a Beckett/Lester/Buchholz/Wakefield rotation down the stretch with the 5th slot going to either Penny or Smoltz. Stay tuned, it will certainly be a bumpy ride the next few months for Red Sox Nation…
